Bitfinex, the cryptocurrency exchange, said in a report released on Monday that the uncertainty of the US election, the "Trump Trading" narrative and seasonal factors in the fourth quarter created a "perfect storm" for Bitcoin, and the market is preparing for possible turbulence. Analysts believe that given the steady growth of Bitcoin call options and favorable seasonal factors in the fourth quarter, Bitcoin may break through a historic high of $73666 after the US election.

Bitcoin will experience significant fluctuations

Bitfinex's report pointed out that due to geopolitical uncertainty, macroeconomic factors and the increasingly strong narrative of "Trump trade", the volatility of Bitcoin has increased. Last week, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline of 6.2% before rebounding. This pullback highlights the growing impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on recent prices. The market generally believes that the Republican Party's victory over Bitcoin and other risky assets is beneficial. The correlation between Trump's chances of being elected and Bitcoin's upward trend has been strengthened.

On the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, users believe that the probability of Trump winning has risen to 66.3%, while He Jinli has dropped to 33.7%.

Bitfinex analysts continued to discuss the trading situation in the Bitcoin options market, pointing out that high implied volatility suggests that market volatility may increase in the next two weeks.

The expectation surrounding the election has stimulated a surge in option activity, with options expiring on key days before and after the election being traded at higher premiums, and implied volatility expected to peak at a daily volatility of 100 on November 8th (i.e. after election day) - indicating that the market is preparing for potential volatility

Analysts say that regardless of the outcome of the US election, Bitcoin's short-term volatility is expected to be higher than usual, while in the long run, Bitfinex continues to hold a bullish attitude towards Bitcoin.

Seasonal bullish factors

The Bitfinex report also identified favorable seasonal factors for Bitcoin. Based on past history, Bitcoin typically performs strongly in the fourth quarter after a six-month decline, with a median quarterly return of 31.34%. Analysts suggest that this strong seasonal effect, combined with record breaking open interest in options and futures, reflects market participants' optimism towards the year-end phase and may drive Bitcoin to a historic high.

The report states, "Supporting this optimism is the steady growth of call options expiring on December 27th, particularly concentrated at the strike price of $80000. As open options contracts climb to new highs, the market is showing signs of laying out for a post election rally, which could push Bitcoin closer to or even beyond its historical high of $73666

(责任编辑：理财)

• ·用盈余公积补亏为什么增加了未分配利润
• ·10月31日富国价值发现混合A净值增长0.19%，近3个月累计上涨11.69%
• ·OP Stack 阵营迎来多个明星项目，Superchain 已近 60 个成员，多家领豪华补贴
• ·a16z：近期传统金融拥抱稳定币关键事件梳理
• ·工资账载金额和实际发生额的区别是什么
• ·比特币用的什么软件
• ·明天去杭州穿什么衣服
• ·DSWP (DSWP)哪里可以买？推荐的交易平台分析
• ·季度申报怎么网上申报
• ·公开发行股票与非公开发行股票的区别是什么
• ·neo发行量多少-neo发行价
• ·10月31日富国成长动力混合C净值下跌0.28%，近1个月累计下跌2.37%
• ·交通运输定额发票怎么做账
• ·柴犬币交易平台app 数字货币交易所排名2025
• ·换了工作公积金怎么办
• ·10月31日招商丰凯混合A净值下跌0.72%，近1个月累计上涨4.55%